Anoka-Hennepin - EdTribune MN - Minnesota Education Data

One in Five: Minnesota Nears a Special Education Threshold

Mon, 13 Apr 2026 12:00:00 GMT

In this series: Minnesota 2025-26 Enrollment.

In 2014, roughly one in seven Minnesota students received special education services. In 2026, it is closer to one in five. The share has grown every year except 2021, when COVID disrupted identification processes statewide, and the pace has accelerated since.

The raw number, 168,525 students, is striking enough. What makes it structurally significant is what happened around it: total enrollment barely moved. Minnesota enrolled 850,871 students in 2014 and 873,175 in 2026, a gain of 2.6%. Special education enrollment grew 33.8% over the same period, adding 42,618 students. The students receiving specialized instruction are not arriving from outside the system. They were already there.

The climb toward 20%

Minnesota's special education rate rose from 14.8% in 2014 to 19.3% in 2026, an increase of 4.5 percentage points over 12 years. At the current pace of roughly 0.38 percentage points per year, the state is on track to cross 20% by 2028.

The growth has not been steady. Before the pandemic, special education enrollment climbed by 3,000 to 4,500 students per year. COVID disrupted that pattern: the state lost 3,420 special education students in 2021 as schools struggled to conduct evaluations and maintain services remotely. Then came the rebound. Between 2022 and 2024, Minnesota added 16,076 special education students in just three years, peaking at 7,517 new identifications in 2024 alone, the largest single-year gain in the dataset.

The 2025 and 2026 numbers, while still positive at 5,667 and 3,520 respectively, suggest the post-COVID identification backlog may be clearing. Whether the rate settles or continues climbing will shape the state's fiscal outlook for years.

What is driving the surge

The most likely explanation is expanded identification, not a sudden increase in disability prevalence. Three mechanisms are operating simultaneously.

First, diagnostic criteria for autism spectrum disorder have broadened nationally. The CDC reported in April 2025 that 1 in 31 eight-year-olds now meets the autism identification threshold, and children born in 2018 were 1.7 times more likely to be diagnosed by age four than those born four years earlier. In Minnesota specifically, 1 in 34 children are diagnosed with autism. The Autism Society of America has emphasized that this reflects better identification, not a growing epidemic.

Second, COVID created a backlog. Evaluations stalled during remote learning, and referrals accumulated. When schools returned to in-person instruction, the evaluation pipeline surged, producing the 2023 and 2024 spikes visible in the data.

Third, parent awareness has increased. KAXE reported in September 2025 that approximately 150,000 Minnesota K-12 students now receive special education services, and attributed rising demand partly to greater awareness of neurological disorders.

A competing explanation, that Minnesota's schools are genuinely seeing more students with disabilities, cannot be ruled out entirely. But the consistency of the trend across states and the timing of the post-COVID acceleration both point toward identification-driven growth rather than prevalence-driven growth.

A widening gap between two enrollment lines

Indexing both series to 2014 reveals the structural divergence. By 2026, special education enrollment stands at 133.8 on the index while total enrollment sits at 102.6. The gap began opening around 2017 and widened sharply after the pandemic.

The practical consequence: non-special-education enrollment actually fell by 20,314 students between 2014 and 2026, even as total enrollment grew slightly. For every 100 students in general education, there are now 23.9 students receiving special education services, up from 17.4 in 2014. That ratio determines staffing models, classroom composition, and the size of the unfunded gap districts must cover from general revenue.

The cross-subsidy: Minnesota's billion-dollar structural problem

Special education services carry higher per-pupil instructional costs than general education. Federal law requires districts to provide these services regardless of funding levels. The gap between what districts spend on special education and what they receive from state and federal sources is called the cross-subsidy, and in Minnesota, it has been one of the largest unfunded mandates in K-12 education.

The Minnesota Department of Education projected the statewide cross-subsidy at $750 million for fiscal year 2024. Rep. Dan Wolgamott (DFL-St. Cloud) characterized the existing system as "robbing Peter to pay Paul," describing how special education shortfalls force districts to redirect general education resources.

"This is the right thing to do. These services are critical to our students with special needs to help them reach their fullest potential." — Rep. Dan Wolgamott, Minnesota House Session Daily

The legislature responded with the most significant special education funding increase in state history. The 2023 education law raised state coverage of the cross-subsidy from 6.43% to 44% for fiscal years 2024-2026, with a further increase to 50% beginning in fiscal year 2027. The law allocated $663 million in increased funding for the 2024-25 biennium.

But even 44% coverage leaves districts responsible for the majority of unreimbursed costs. And the denominator keeps growing: as the special education population expands, so does the total cost. The 2025 K-12 education bill directed a Blue Ribbon Commission to find $250 million in special education cost reductions by the 2026 legislative session and cut special education transportation reimbursement to 95% in fiscal year 2026 and 90% thereafter, a reduction of $43.2 million over two years.

Where the burden falls unevenly

Special education rates vary enormously across Minnesota's 535 districts. Excluding intermediate school districts, which are special education cooperatives by design, rates in 2026 range from 2.1% at Higher Ground Academy^↗, a charter school in St. Paul, to 31.2% at Cass Lake-Bena^↗ in northern Minnesota.

Among districts with at least 500 students, 126 have already crossed the 20% threshold. Rural districts dominate the high end: Deer River^↗ at 30.6%, Onamia^↗ at 29.8%, and Greenway^↗ at 29.5%. At those rates, nearly one in three students is entitled to an individualized education program.

The charter sector tells a different story. Charter schools collectively serve students at a 15.8% special education rate, compared to 19.6% for traditional districts, a 3.8 percentage-point gap. Both rates have grown since 2014, when charters stood at 12.4% and traditional districts at 14.9%, but the gap has persisted. Several charter schools sit below 7%: STEP Academy (6.0%), New Century School (6.0%), and Metro Schools Charter (4.5%). Whether this reflects enrollment patterns, mission-specific populations, or differential identification practices is a question Minnesota has not systematically answered.

Large districts feel it most in the budget

Among the state's largest districts, St. Cloud^↗ carries the highest special education rate at 24.9%, up from 20.0% in 2014. Duluth^↗ stands at 24.8%, up 8.0 percentage points over the period. Cambridge-Isanti^↗ and Buffalo-Hanover-Montrose^↗ each saw their rates jump by 9.6 percentage points, the largest increases among large districts, reaching 22.5% and 23.4% respectively.

Minneapolis^↗ is the notable outlier. Its special education rate rose only 0.9 percentage points, from 18.2% to 19.1%, the smallest increase among the state's 40 largest districts. Minneapolis is also the only large district where the absolute number of special education students declined, from 6,588 to 5,742, a drop that tracks with the district's overall enrollment losses.

Anoka-Hennepin^↗, the state's largest district, crossed 20% in 2026, reaching 20.3% with 7,797 students receiving services, up from 5,658 in 2014.

The 20% horizon

The 20% threshold is symbolic, but it carries real weight. It means a school of 500 students has roughly 100 IEPs to staff, fund, and comply with. It means one in five families navigating the special education process. And it means general education budgets absorbing an ever-larger share of costs that state and federal funding does not cover.

The Blue Ribbon Commission's work, due by the 2026 session, will determine whether Minnesota attempts to slow the growth in costs or simply funds the system at its current trajectory. The distinction matters: "cost control" in special education usually means tightening identification criteria or capping service levels, decisions that directly affect which students receive support.

Even at 44% state coverage, the cross-subsidy that districts absorb from their general funds exceeds $400 million a year. Every new IEP adds to the total. Minnesota added 3,520 special education students in 2026 alone, and the Blue Ribbon Commission tasked with finding $250 million in savings has not yet reported. Meanwhile, the legislature cut special education transportation reimbursement by $43.2 million over two years. The 20% threshold is symbolic. The billion-dollar structural gap between what the law requires and what the state funds is not.

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Five Years Later, Minnesota Is Still at the COVID Floor

Mon, 23 Mar 2026 12:00:00 GMT

In this series: Minnesota 2025-26 Enrollment.

Minnesota was a growth state. From 2010 to 2020, enrollment rose every single year, climbing from 836,557 to 893,203, a gain of 56,646 over 10 consecutive years. Then COVID arrived, 21,120 students vanished in a single year, and the state never got them back.

Five years after the pandemic trough, Minnesota's K-12 enrollment stands at 873,175. Of the 21,120 students lost between 2020 and 2021, exactly 1,092 have returned, a 5.2% recovery rate. Had the pre-2020 growth trend continued, averaging roughly 4,050 students per year, the state would be approaching 917,500 students. Instead, 44,322 students are missing from where the trendline projected they would be.

The false signal of 2025

The 2025 school year briefly suggested recovery was possible. Enrollment jumped by 6,779 students, the largest single-year gain since before the pandemic. But 2026 erased more than half of it, dropping 3,571 students. The bounce was a mirage.

What makes the pattern unusual is how stable the floor has been. From 2021 through 2024, enrollment varied by less than 2,200 students total, hovering between 869,967 and 872,083. The state did not slowly decline or gradually recover. It dropped to a new level and stayed there, as if a thermostat had been reset.

Where the students went

The statewide 5.2% recovery figure obscures a sharper divide. Traditional public school districts have not recovered at all. They enrolled 830,452 students in 2020 and 800,405 in 2026, a net loss of 30,047. Charter schools, meanwhile, grew from 62,751 to 72,770 over the same period, adding 10,019 students, a 16% gain.

Indexed to 2020 enrollment levels, traditional districts sit at 96.4 while charters have climbed to 116. The two sectors are moving in opposite directions.

Of the 280 districts that lost students during COVID, only 74, or 26.4%, have returned to their 2020 enrollment level. The remaining 206 are still below their pre-pandemic peak. The pattern is consistent: larger districts recover less.

Minneapolis^↗ has lost 4,533 students since 2020, a 13.1% decline that has pushed the district to 30,079 students. Saint Paul^↗ dropped from 36,004 to 32,750, a loss of 3,254 (9.0%). Robbinsdale^↗, a first-ring suburb, has lost 16.6%. Not a single large district in the state, defined as 8,000 or more students in 2020, has returned to pre-pandemic enrollment.

The exceptions are mostly affluent western suburbs. Wayzata^↗ has surged past its 2020 level by 1,010 students. Eden Prairie^↗ gained 855. These gains likely reflect families sorting into high-performing suburban systems rather than net new students entering the state's schools.

The pipeline problem underneath

The COVID plateau is not just about families who left and did not return. The incoming pipeline has structurally narrowed. Minnesota's kindergarten enrollment has fallen from 65,423 in 2020 to 56,993 in 2026, a decline of 12.9%. Meanwhile, 12th-grade enrollment has risen from 71,302 to 76,674. Each year, more students leave the top of the system than enter at the bottom.

The state demographer's office has connected this directly to falling birth rates. Minnesota had approximately 3,000 fewer school-age children in 2021 than in 2020, and projections suggest roughly 10,000 fewer kindergarteners will enter schools in 2026 than did in 2021. U.S. birth rates have declined annually since 2015, and Minnesota has not been exempt.

This means the COVID floor is not a temporary resting point. Even if every family that left traditional public schools returned, the incoming cohorts are too small to restore growth. A state that added students for 10 consecutive years now loses them structurally, independent of any pandemic effect.

Funding pressure without fiscal collapse

Minnesota's general education funding formula allocates $7,481 per pupil for fiscal year 2026. The 44,322-student gap between where enrollment is and where pre-COVID trends projected it would be represents roughly $332 million in formula revenue that the system will never see.

That figure overstates the immediate pain. Minnesota provides declining enrollment revenue, a mechanism that gives districts 28% of the basic formula allowance for each student lost in a given year, cushioning the transition. The Minnesota Department of Education forecasts declining pupil revenue at $18.5 million statewide, rising to $31 million in fiscal year 2027.

The real fiscal pressure hits unevenly. Minneapolis projects a budget shortfall that has grown from $30 million to approximately $75 million, driven largely by enrollment loss. The district has capacity for 42,000 students but enrolls 30,079. St. Paul passed a $37 million levy but still projects a $15 million shortfall for 2026-27. Anoka-Hennepin^↗, the state's largest district, faces a $24 million gap.

The building problem

Where the 30,000 students who left traditional districts went is not entirely a mystery. Charter schools absorbed 10,019. Private schools and homeschooling saw increases of 1% and 10%, respectively. State demographic projections forecast the student population declining roughly 5% over the next 15 years. And some of the missing, the children who were never born, simply do not exist to enroll.

For district leaders, the operational reality is physical: too many buildings for too few students. Minneapolis has capacity for 42,000 students and enrolls 30,079. The school board has begun discussing what a smaller district looks like. Farmington^↗, which lost 15.1% of its enrollment since 2020, and Robbinsdale^↗, which lost 16.6%, face similar arithmetic. Every half-empty building carries the same heating bill, the same roof maintenance, the same fixed costs spread across fewer students.

The 2027 kindergarten cohort will be drawn from children born in 2021 and 2022, the lowest birth years in recent Minnesota history. The COVID floor was not a temporary resting point that the 2025 bounce interrupted. It was the first landing on a staircase that leads down.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.