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One in Five: Minnesota Nears a Special Education Threshold

Mon, 13 Apr 2026 12:00:00 GMT

In this series: Minnesota 2025-26 Enrollment.

In 2014, roughly one in seven Minnesota students received special education services. In 2026, it is closer to one in five. The share has grown every year except 2021, when COVID disrupted identification processes statewide, and the pace has accelerated since.

The raw number, 168,525 students, is striking enough. What makes it structurally significant is what happened around it: total enrollment barely moved. Minnesota enrolled 850,871 students in 2014 and 873,175 in 2026, a gain of 2.6%. Special education enrollment grew 33.8% over the same period, adding 42,618 students. The students receiving specialized instruction are not arriving from outside the system. They were already there.

The climb toward 20%

Minnesota's special education rate rose from 14.8% in 2014 to 19.3% in 2026, an increase of 4.5 percentage points over 12 years. At the current pace of roughly 0.38 percentage points per year, the state is on track to cross 20% by 2028.

The growth has not been steady. Before the pandemic, special education enrollment climbed by 3,000 to 4,500 students per year. COVID disrupted that pattern: the state lost 3,420 special education students in 2021 as schools struggled to conduct evaluations and maintain services remotely. Then came the rebound. Between 2022 and 2024, Minnesota added 16,076 special education students in just three years, peaking at 7,517 new identifications in 2024 alone, the largest single-year gain in the dataset.

The 2025 and 2026 numbers, while still positive at 5,667 and 3,520 respectively, suggest the post-COVID identification backlog may be clearing. Whether the rate settles or continues climbing will shape the state's fiscal outlook for years.

What is driving the surge

The most likely explanation is expanded identification, not a sudden increase in disability prevalence. Three mechanisms are operating simultaneously.

First, diagnostic criteria for autism spectrum disorder have broadened nationally. The CDC reported in April 2025 that 1 in 31 eight-year-olds now meets the autism identification threshold, and children born in 2018 were 1.7 times more likely to be diagnosed by age four than those born four years earlier. In Minnesota specifically, 1 in 34 children are diagnosed with autism. The Autism Society of America has emphasized that this reflects better identification, not a growing epidemic.

Second, COVID created a backlog. Evaluations stalled during remote learning, and referrals accumulated. When schools returned to in-person instruction, the evaluation pipeline surged, producing the 2023 and 2024 spikes visible in the data.

Third, parent awareness has increased. KAXE reported in September 2025 that approximately 150,000 Minnesota K-12 students now receive special education services, and attributed rising demand partly to greater awareness of neurological disorders.

A competing explanation, that Minnesota's schools are genuinely seeing more students with disabilities, cannot be ruled out entirely. But the consistency of the trend across states and the timing of the post-COVID acceleration both point toward identification-driven growth rather than prevalence-driven growth.

A widening gap between two enrollment lines

Indexing both series to 2014 reveals the structural divergence. By 2026, special education enrollment stands at 133.8 on the index while total enrollment sits at 102.6. The gap began opening around 2017 and widened sharply after the pandemic.

The practical consequence: non-special-education enrollment actually fell by 20,314 students between 2014 and 2026, even as total enrollment grew slightly. For every 100 students in general education, there are now 23.9 students receiving special education services, up from 17.4 in 2014. That ratio determines staffing models, classroom composition, and the size of the unfunded gap districts must cover from general revenue.

The cross-subsidy: Minnesota's billion-dollar structural problem

Special education services carry higher per-pupil instructional costs than general education. Federal law requires districts to provide these services regardless of funding levels. The gap between what districts spend on special education and what they receive from state and federal sources is called the cross-subsidy, and in Minnesota, it has been one of the largest unfunded mandates in K-12 education.

The Minnesota Department of Education projected the statewide cross-subsidy at $750 million for fiscal year 2024. Rep. Dan Wolgamott (DFL-St. Cloud) characterized the existing system as "robbing Peter to pay Paul," describing how special education shortfalls force districts to redirect general education resources.

"This is the right thing to do. These services are critical to our students with special needs to help them reach their fullest potential." — Rep. Dan Wolgamott, Minnesota House Session Daily

The legislature responded with the most significant special education funding increase in state history. The 2023 education law raised state coverage of the cross-subsidy from 6.43% to 44% for fiscal years 2024-2026, with a further increase to 50% beginning in fiscal year 2027. The law allocated $663 million in increased funding for the 2024-25 biennium.

But even 44% coverage leaves districts responsible for the majority of unreimbursed costs. And the denominator keeps growing: as the special education population expands, so does the total cost. The 2025 K-12 education bill directed a Blue Ribbon Commission to find $250 million in special education cost reductions by the 2026 legislative session and cut special education transportation reimbursement to 95% in fiscal year 2026 and 90% thereafter, a reduction of $43.2 million over two years.

Where the burden falls unevenly

Special education rates vary enormously across Minnesota's 535 districts. Excluding intermediate school districts, which are special education cooperatives by design, rates in 2026 range from 2.1% at Higher Ground Academy^↗, a charter school in St. Paul, to 31.2% at Cass Lake-Bena^↗ in northern Minnesota.

Among districts with at least 500 students, 126 have already crossed the 20% threshold. Rural districts dominate the high end: Deer River^↗ at 30.6%, Onamia^↗ at 29.8%, and Greenway^↗ at 29.5%. At those rates, nearly one in three students is entitled to an individualized education program.

The charter sector tells a different story. Charter schools collectively serve students at a 15.8% special education rate, compared to 19.6% for traditional districts, a 3.8 percentage-point gap. Both rates have grown since 2014, when charters stood at 12.4% and traditional districts at 14.9%, but the gap has persisted. Several charter schools sit below 7%: STEP Academy (6.0%), New Century School (6.0%), and Metro Schools Charter (4.5%). Whether this reflects enrollment patterns, mission-specific populations, or differential identification practices is a question Minnesota has not systematically answered.

Large districts feel it most in the budget

Among the state's largest districts, St. Cloud^↗ carries the highest special education rate at 24.9%, up from 20.0% in 2014. Duluth^↗ stands at 24.8%, up 8.0 percentage points over the period. Cambridge-Isanti^↗ and Buffalo-Hanover-Montrose^↗ each saw their rates jump by 9.6 percentage points, the largest increases among large districts, reaching 22.5% and 23.4% respectively.

Minneapolis^↗ is the notable outlier. Its special education rate rose only 0.9 percentage points, from 18.2% to 19.1%, the smallest increase among the state's 40 largest districts. Minneapolis is also the only large district where the absolute number of special education students declined, from 6,588 to 5,742, a drop that tracks with the district's overall enrollment losses.

Anoka-Hennepin^↗, the state's largest district, crossed 20% in 2026, reaching 20.3% with 7,797 students receiving services, up from 5,658 in 2014.

The 20% horizon

The 20% threshold is symbolic, but it carries real weight. It means a school of 500 students has roughly 100 IEPs to staff, fund, and comply with. It means one in five families navigating the special education process. And it means general education budgets absorbing an ever-larger share of costs that state and federal funding does not cover.

The Blue Ribbon Commission's work, due by the 2026 session, will determine whether Minnesota attempts to slow the growth in costs or simply funds the system at its current trajectory. The distinction matters: "cost control" in special education usually means tightening identification criteria or capping service levels, decisions that directly affect which students receive support.

Even at 44% state coverage, the cross-subsidy that districts absorb from their general funds exceeds $400 million a year. Every new IEP adds to the total. Minnesota added 3,520 special education students in 2026 alone, and the Blue Ribbon Commission tasked with finding $250 million in savings has not yet reported. Meanwhile, the legislature cut special education transportation reimbursement by $43.2 million over two years. The 20% threshold is symbolic. The billion-dollar structural gap between what the law requires and what the state funds is not.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.

43% Black: How St. Cloud Became Minnesota's Most Transformed District

Mon, 30 Mar 2026 12:00:00 GMT

In this series: Minnesota 2025-26 Enrollment.

In 2006-07, St. Cloud^↗ enrolled 9,557 students. Nearly four out of five were white. Black students made up 12.1% of the district, a small minority in a city that had been overwhelmingly Scandinavian and German for generations.

By 2025-26, the numbers had inverted. Black students are now 43.0% of enrollment, the largest group in the district. White students have dropped to 33.8%. The total enrollment barely changed: 10,232 students, just 675 more than 20 years ago. But the composition of those classrooms is unrecognizable.

No mid-size district in Minnesota has undergone a transformation this fast. St. Cloud's Black enrollment share is 3.4 times the statewide average of 12.6%, and it exceeds Minneapolis, where Black students make up 26.8% of enrollment. The shift was driven overwhelmingly by one community: Somali refugees and their American-born children, who began arriving in Central Minnesota at the turn of the century and have reshaped the district's identity, its budget, and its politics.

The Crossover

The trend lines crossed in 2021, when Black enrollment share (41.4%) surpassed white enrollment share (40.5%) for the first time. That crossover was the culmination of two decades of steady, compounding change: Black enrollment grew from 1,161 students in 2006-07 to 4,399 in 2025-26, an increase of 279%. White enrollment fell from 7,545 to 3,462, a decline of 54.1%.

St. Cloud became majority-minority in 2018, when the white share dropped below 50% for the first time. It has fallen every year since. Meanwhile, the district's Hispanic population has grown 256%, from 347 students to 1,234, making Hispanic students 12.1% of enrollment in 2025-26, up from 3.6% in 2006-07.

The district's demographic profile now looks nothing like the state it sits in. Statewide, Minnesota's Black enrollment share crept from 9.1% to 12.6% over the same period. St. Cloud's share grew more than 30 percentage points. The gap between St. Cloud and the state average widened from 3 points in 2007 to more than 30 points by 2026.

Somali Resettlement and the Remaking of Central Minnesota

The mechanism behind St. Cloud's transformation is not ambiguous. Somali families began resettling in the St. Cloud area through federal refugee programs around 2000, drawn by resettlement agencies operating in the region, affordable housing, and meatpacking and manufacturing jobs. Secondary migration from initial placements in other states, particularly New York and Texas, amplified the flow.

By 2020, St. Cloud's city-wide Black population had reached nearly 15,000, up from approximately 1,700 in 2000. Nearly 4,400 St. Cloud residents claim Somali heritage. Statewide, approximately 107,000 people of Somali descent live in Minnesota, the largest Somali community in the United States. Nearly 58% were born in the U.S.

The school enrollment data captures something the census underestimates. Because Somali families tend to be young, with 47.1% of Minnesota's Somali population under 17, their share of the school-age population far outpaces their share of the general population. The city's overall Black population is roughly 20% according to the 2020 Census; in the schools, it is 43%.

"I think the first thing people do when they get their citizenship is to vote." — Ahmed Abdi, journalist, on Somali civic engagement in St. Cloud, MPR News, Oct. 2024

The community's growing civic presence extends beyond the classroom. Multiple Somali-American candidates have run for city council and state legislative seats, and political scientist Matt Lindstrom has observed that two decades of settlement have given the community "more capital, both financial and social capital" to engage politically.

One in Four Students Is an English Learner

The demographic shift created a parallel operational challenge: language services. In 2025-26, 2,401 students in St. Cloud were classified as English learners, 23.5% of total enrollment. That is nearly double the statewide average. The EL population grew 66% from 1,444 in 2014, peaked at 2,466 in 2019, dipped during the pandemic years, and has now returned to its pre-COVID level.

The operational weight of that concentration falls on specific schools. PBS NewsHour reported that at Talahi Elementary, roughly 45% of students are Somali, and at Apollo High School, nearly a quarter of 1,400 students are Somali. Out of more than 700 teachers in the district, only one is Somali.

The district has responded with programmatic innovation. St. Cloud launched Minnesota's first Somali language immersion program for incoming kindergarteners. The dual immersion model splits the school day between Somali and English instruction across all subjects. Abdi Mahad, who created the elementary curriculum, has noted that many Somali-American students speak Somali at home but cannot read or write it.

"Research shows that kids who learn to first read and write their native language gain the skills to better acquire a second language." — Abdi Mahad, curriculum designer, Mpls.St.Paul Magazine

The Funding Gap Behind the Numbers

St. Cloud's transformation has not come with matching resources. The district ranks as Minnesota's least adequately funded, receiving approximately 66% of needed state support according to a 2023 MPR analysis. With 70% of students qualifying for free or reduced-price lunch and nearly 25% receiving special education services, the district's cost structure reflects a student body with intensive needs.

Special education enrollment has risen steadily, from 20.0% of the student body in 2014 to 24.9% in 2025-26. One in four St. Cloud students now receives special education services. (EL and special education populations overlap substantially; these figures should not be added together.) Finance director Amy Skaalerud has described the district's special education and English learner services as generating "large cross subsidies that are underfunded" at both state and federal levels.

In 2025, federal funding uncertainty compounded the pressure. The district was waiting on more than $1 million in federal grants, including $250,000 in Title III funds specifically earmarked for English learner support.

Growing, Not Shrinking

St. Cloud's demographic story is unusual in another respect: total enrollment has held steady and recently grown. Most Minnesota districts are shrinking. The state lost 20,028 students between 2020 and 2026. St. Cloud gained 61 over that span, and in the last two years it has surged: enrollment jumped from 9,286 in 2022-23 to 10,232 in 2025-26, an increase of 946 students. Board member Al Dahlgren told St. Cloud Live that in his 13 years on the board, he had not seen anything like the recent growth.

The growth is driven entirely by students of color. White enrollment fell by 68 students between 2022-23 and 2025-26. Black enrollment grew by 577, Hispanic by 376, and multiracial by 49.

District officials noted that over 400 students transferred in from charter schools or other districts in the most recent year.

No Comparable Peer

Among Minnesota's mid-size districts, no peer comes close to St. Cloud's demographic profile. Rochester, the state's third-largest district, has a Black enrollment share of 17.2%. Moorhead sits at 16.6%, Mankato at 14.5%, and Willmar at 14.2%. St. Cloud's 43.0% is in a category by itself.

Even Minneapolis, the state's largest and most diverse urban district, enrolls a smaller share of Black students at 26.8%. St. Cloud, a city of 69,000 an hour northwest of the Twin Cities, has a higher concentration of Black students than any other traditional school district in Minnesota.

The district's 2026-29 achievement plan reflects the stakes. Graduation rates for Black students stood at 65.4% in 2024. For Hispanic students, the rate was 43.8%. Third-grade reading proficiency for Black students was 43%, and for Hispanic students, 12.1%. The district has set a goal of 85% graduation rates for underrepresented groups by 2029.

The teacher gap

The question for St. Cloud is whether the infrastructure catches up to the students. The district has grown more diverse than any comparable community in Minnesota, but its teacher workforce remains 91.5% white. Federal funding for EL services is uncertain. Special education cross-subsidies are growing. And a community that has experienced documented tensions around demographic change is now at a point where the plurality group in the schools is the population that arrived most recently.

The 2026-27 kindergarten cohort will provide the next signal. If the recent pattern holds, with 1,000 students enrolling for the first time in the most recent year alone, St. Cloud's total enrollment will push toward levels not seen since the mid-2010s, even as it continues losing white students.

Meanwhile, at an elementary school in St. Cloud, a class of kindergarteners is learning to read and write in Somali before switching to English after lunch. The dual immersion program, the first of its kind in Minnesota, is built on a simple premise from curriculum designer Abdi Mahad: children who are literate in their home language learn a second language faster. It is the kind of program that only exists in a district where 43% of students are Black, where 2,401 are learning English, and where one Somali teacher serves a workforce of more than 700.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.